Live Risk And Prediction Watches
PlanetWatch AI
A public alert-intelligence page that watches Earth signals, detects fast changes, and turns public evidence into live risk watches and prediction alerts.
The goal is practical warning: what is happening, what may happen next, how confident the signal is, and which evidence supports it.
Experimental system · current operating boundary
Situational Awareness—Not An Emergency Alert Or Validated Prediction Service
Model version: PlanetWatch public signal model 0.2 · 20 July 2026. Page generated: 2026-08-04T05:17:56Z. PlanetWatch aggregates public official alerts, sensor/catalog observations, forecast-model data and disaster-context feeds. The current feed URLs, retrieval health, freshness and evidence counts are disclosed below under “Evidence Checked This Hour.”
How scoring works: displayed 0–100 risk and confidence values are deterministic heuristic summaries of inputs such as magnitude or alert severity, recency, source reliability, coverage and cross-source agreement. They are not calibrated probabilities that an event will occur. Each watch states its own horizon—commonly the next 24 hours for generated location watches—and its source evidence.
Validation status: the public model does not yet have a published prospective calibration record covering every watch, false positive, miss and source-version snapshot. No score should be described as validated predictive skill until that ledger, backtesting, untouched prospective testing and independent review exist.
Safety: PlanetWatch is experimental situational awareness, not an emergency alert service and not a validated earthquake, war or market prediction system. During danger, use local emergency management and the responsible official warning agency. Never delay evacuation, medical care or another protective action because of this page.
All Predictions List
This is the direct list-only view: all generated prediction locations with the map omitted.
Possible M5+ watch zone near The 2026 Kumamoto Region, Japan Earthquake: recent M6.8, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near Kermadec Islands region: recent M5.9, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near Kermadec Islands region: recent M5.8, 12 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 50 km WSW of Brisas Barra de Suchiate, Mexico: recent M5.9, 8 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 57 km E of Mutsu, Japan: recent M5.5, 4 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 16 km NE of Tsunagi, Japan: recent M5.6, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Flood Warning for McMullen, TX.
Flood Warning for Live Oak, TX.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 14 km S of Hicks Bay, New Zealand: recent M5.6, 1 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 201 km W of Abepura, Indonesia: recent M5.4, 4 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 200 km SW of Port McNeill, Canada: recent M5.6, 1 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Possible M5+ watch zone near 13 km ENE of San Fernando, Peru: recent M5.6, 2 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Beijing, China: forecast max AQI 181, max PM2.5 80.6 ug/m3.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Middle Coulee, Chouteau, Montana.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Antelope Creek, Elko, Nevada.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Bluegill, Miami-Dade, Florida.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire MITRE ROCK, Stevens, Washington.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Johnson Canyon, Box Elder, Utah.
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Semi 270, Woodward, Oklahoma.
Mexico City, Mexico: forecast max AQI 153, max PM2.5 39.5 ug/m3.
Delhi, India: forecast max AQI 125, max PM2.5 48.2 ug/m3.
Sao Paulo, Brazil: forecast max AQI 122, max PM2.5 69.2 ug/m3.
Green flood alert in Belarus
Green flood alert in Poland
Green flood alert in Germany
New York, United States: forecast max AQI 106, max PM2.5 28.4 ug/m3.
Cairo, Egypt: forecast max AQI 92, max PM2.5 19.5 ug/m3.
Green forest fire notification in United States
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in United States
Cairo, Egypt: max temp 37.9 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 42.5 km/h.
Delhi, India: max temp 30.0 C, max hourly rain 2.3 mm, max gust 19.4 km/h.
Beijing, China: max temp 34.1 C, max hourly rain 0.2 mm, max gust 34.2 km/h.
New York, United States: max temp 26.7 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 37.8 km/h.
Los Angeles, United States: max temp 31.0 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 17.6 km/h.
Mexico City, Mexico: max temp 27.3 C, max hourly rain 0.3 mm, max gust 42.8 km/h.
Alert Intelligence
Live Alerts
Official warnings and fresh sensor changes are surfaced first, with confidence and evidence instead of vague alarm.
Prediction Watches
Forecast and anomaly signals are scored as watches before they become emergencies, so rising risk is visible early.
Evidence Confidence
Each watch separates strong official signals from experimental, single-source, stale, or model-only evidence.
Global Prediction Map
Updated 2026-08-04T05:17:56Z. The map shows generated watch locations for the next 24 hours where live public evidence is strong enough to place a marker. Strongest watch now: M5+ seismic watch near The 2026 Kumamoto Region, Japan Earthquake at 100/100.
Prediction Locations By Category
Earthquake entries are M5+ seismic watch zones for the next 24 hours based on recent USGS M4.5+/M5 activity, recency, and clustering. Other categories use live warnings, forecast signals, observed events, or public health indicators where location data exists.
Earthquake M5+
The 2026 Kumamoto Region, Japan Earthquake
Possible M5+ watch zone near The 2026 Kumamoto Region, Japan Earthquake: recent M6.8, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Kermadec Islands region
Possible M5+ watch zone near Kermadec Islands region: recent M5.9, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Kermadec Islands region
Possible M5+ watch zone near Kermadec Islands region: recent M5.8, 12 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
50 km WSW of Brisas Barra de Suchiate, Mexico
Possible M5+ watch zone near 50 km WSW of Brisas Barra de Suchiate, Mexico: recent M5.9, 8 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
57 km E of Mutsu, Japan
Possible M5+ watch zone near 57 km E of Mutsu, Japan: recent M5.5, 4 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
16 km NE of Tsunagi, Japan
Possible M5+ watch zone near 16 km NE of Tsunagi, Japan: recent M5.6, 13 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
14 km S of Hicks Bay, New Zealand
Possible M5+ watch zone near 14 km S of Hicks Bay, New Zealand: recent M5.6, 1 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
201 km W of Abepura, Indonesia
Possible M5+ watch zone near 201 km W of Abepura, Indonesia: recent M5.4, 4 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
200 km SW of Port McNeill, Canada
Possible M5+ watch zone near 200 km SW of Port McNeill, Canada: recent M5.6, 1 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
13 km ENE of San Fernando, Peru
Possible M5+ watch zone near 13 km ENE of San Fernando, Peru: recent M5.6, 2 M4.5+ events within 450 km this week.
Weather
McMullen, TX
Flood Warning for McMullen, TX.
Live Oak, TX
Flood Warning for Live Oak, TX.
Cairo, Egypt
Cairo, Egypt: max temp 37.9 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 42.5 km/h.
Delhi, India
Delhi, India: max temp 30.0 C, max hourly rain 2.3 mm, max gust 19.4 km/h.
Beijing, China
Beijing, China: max temp 34.1 C, max hourly rain 0.2 mm, max gust 34.2 km/h.
New York, United States
New York, United States: max temp 26.7 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 37.8 km/h.
Los Angeles, United States
Los Angeles, United States: max temp 31.0 C, max hourly rain 0.0 mm, max gust 17.6 km/h.
Mexico City, Mexico
Mexico City, Mexico: max temp 27.3 C, max hourly rain 0.3 mm, max gust 42.8 km/h.
Air / Health
Beijing, China
Beijing, China: forecast max AQI 181, max PM2.5 80.6 ug/m3.
Mexico City, Mexico
Mexico City, Mexico: forecast max AQI 153, max PM2.5 39.5 ug/m3.
Delhi, India
Delhi, India: forecast max AQI 125, max PM2.5 48.2 ug/m3.
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Sao Paulo, Brazil: forecast max AQI 122, max PM2.5 69.2 ug/m3.
New York, United States
New York, United States: forecast max AQI 106, max PM2.5 28.4 ug/m3.
Cairo, Egypt
Cairo, Egypt: forecast max AQI 92, max PM2.5 19.5 ug/m3.
Wildfire / Smoke
Wildfire Middle Coulee, Chouteau, Montana
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Middle Coulee, Chouteau, Montana.
Wildfire Antelope Creek, Elko, Nevada
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Antelope Creek, Elko, Nevada.
Wildfire Bluegill, Miami-Dade, Florida
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Bluegill, Miami-Dade, Florida.
Wildfire MITRE ROCK, Stevens, Washington
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire MITRE ROCK, Stevens, Washington.
Wildfire Johnson Canyon, Box Elder, Utah
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Johnson Canyon, Box Elder, Utah.
Wildfire Semi 270, Woodward, Oklahoma
Open NASA EONET event: Wildfire Semi 270, Woodward, Oklahoma.
Flood / Storm
Green flood alert in Belarus
Green flood alert in Belarus
Green flood alert in Poland
Green flood alert in Poland
Green flood alert in Germany
Green flood alert in Germany
Disaster
Green forest fire notification in United States
Green forest fire notification in United States
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in Australia
Green forest fire notification in United States
Green forest fire notification in United States
Prediction Boundary
PlanetWatch AI is an independent situational-awareness page. It does not replace official guidance. For earthquakes, the useful target is probabilistic warning: anomaly watches before an event, aftershock forecasts after a mainshock, and early warning once instruments detect an earthquake already underway. It must not claim exact date, time, location, and magnitude certainty.
Prediction Watch Network
The page watches multiple independent signal families. A prediction watch is strongest when several unrelated feeds start pointing in the same direction and the data is fresh.
Earthquake Prediction Watch
Combines live seismicity, swarm acceleration, aftershock models, fault-zone history, GNSS/InSAR deformation where available, ionosphere/space-weather context, and official early-warning feeds after rupture begins.
Storm And Flood Watch
Combines official warnings, forecast precipitation, radar/MRMS direction, river gauges, forecast crests, coastal water levels, and recent trend velocity.
Fire And Smoke Watch
Combines fire weather, satellite thermal detections, official perimeters, smoke plumes, PM2.5/AQI, drought, wind, and fuel-stress indicators.
Health And Air Watch
Combines AQI, pollutant forecasts, observed stations where keyed, CDC wastewater viral activity, trend velocity, and data coverage.
Space Weather Watch
Combines NOAA SWPC alert products, geomagnetic storm scales, solar radiation, radio blackout indicators, Kp, and flare products.
Earthquake Prediction Watch
What Can Be Predicted
Exact earthquake prediction is not reliable today, but risk can still be watched: seismic swarms, foreshock patterns, aftershock probabilities, stress-transfer context, crustal deformation, and early warning seconds after rupture begins.
Signals To Combine
Seismometers, USGS catalogs, GNSS crustal motion, satellite InSAR deformation, groundwater or geochemical anomalies where credible, ionosphere TEC checked against space weather, tides, fault history, and official ShakeAlert-style early-warning feeds.
Watch Levels
Quiet means normal background activity. Watch means unusual but uncertain signal. Elevated means several signals agree. Urgent should require official detection, strong aftershock probability, or human review.
False-Alarm Control
Space-weather storms, sensor outages, normal aftershock decay, station noise, and isolated social reports must be filtered before a prediction watch is escalated.
Evidence Checked This Hour
The alert engine checks public evidence streams and records whether the feeds are fresh enough to trust for watches.
National Weather Service active alerts
healthy250 active U.S. official alert records returned. Latest sample: Test Message.
USGS earthquakes, last day
healthy229 earthquake records returned for the last day. Newest sample: M 1.4 – 40 km E of Stevens Village, Alaska.
USGS M4.5+ earthquakes, last week
healthy139 M4.5+ seismic events returned for the last week; using recent M5+ and clustered M4.5+ activity for 24h M5+ watch zones.
NASA EONET open natural events
healthy20 open event records sampled. Latest sample: Wildfire Middle Coulee, Chouteau, Montana.
Open-Meteo weather forecast sample
healthyForecast sample responded for New York City. Current temperature=19.6 C, wind=6.1 km/h.
Global city weather forecast watches
healthy12 global city weather forecasts sampled. Highest watch: Cairo, Egypt (Heat watch, 27/100).
Open-Meteo air-quality forecast sample
healthy24 hourly air-quality forecast points returned. Max sample AQI=106; max PM2.5=28.4.
Global city air-quality watches
healthy12 global city air-quality forecasts sampled. Highest watch: Beijing, China (69/100).
USGS stream gauge sample
healthyPotomac River sample gauge returned 134 recent readings. Latest stage=2.90 ft; 6h delta=-0.04 ft.
USGS water latest-continuous API
healthy10 latest gage-height records sampled from the newer USGS Water Data API. Sample site=USGS-01648010, value=1.58 ft.
GDACS global disaster RSS
healthy302 GDACS RSS items sampled. Recent: Green earthquake (Magnitude 5.6M, Depth:52.806km) in New Zealand 02/08/2026 08:35 UTC, 30 thousand in MMI IV.; Green forest fire notification in United States.
NOAA tsunami Atom feed
healthyLatest NTWC Atom title: Tsunami Information Statement Number 1. Updated=2026-08-03T09:30:32Z.
NOAA SWPC space-weather scales
healthyCurrent NOAA space-weather scales: R0 none, S0 none, G0 none.
NOAA SWPC alert messages
healthy90 SWPC alert messages sampled. Latest product=K04W; Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5397 Issue Time: 2026 Aug 03 2355 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-.
CDC wastewater viral activity
healthy5 latest public wastewater viral-activity rows sampled. Week ending=2026-07-25; pathogens=Influenza A virus, RSV, SARS-CoV-2; states=WISCONSIN.
Alert Types Watched
Severe Weather
Warnings, watches, wind, hail, tornado, heat, cold, precipitation, and forecast escalation.
Flood And Coastal Water
River gauges, rising-stage velocity, forecast crests, coastal water levels, rainfall, and compound storm signals.
Wildfire And Smoke
Fire weather, hot spots, official perimeters, smoke, PM2.5, wind, drought, and satellite context.
Air And Health
AQI, pollutant forecasts, observed stations, and community-level wastewater viral activity where public data exists.
Earthquake And Tsunami
Seismicity, aftershock probability, crustal deformation signals, early warning after detection, and official tsunami products.
Global Disaster Context
Disaster feeds, official declarations, humanitarian context, and corroboration against primary hazard data.
Space Weather
Radio blackout, solar radiation, geomagnetic storms, satellite, aviation, GNSS, and grid-awareness signals.
Drought And Heat
Drought intensity, heat-risk outlooks, official heat alerts, soil/fuel stress, and persistence trends.
Experimental Anomalies
Signals like ionosphere, groundwater, radon, deformation, and cross-domain anomalies can support watches only when labeled experimental and corroborated.
How To Read A Watch
Score
0-19 quiet, 20-39 watch, 40-59 elevated, 60-79 high, 80-100 severe.
Confidence
High confidence needs fresh authoritative evidence, coverage, source agreement, and healthy data feeds.
Prediction Watch
A watch means converging precursors or forecast conditions are unusual enough to monitor closely. It is not a guarantee.
Escalation
High-impact non-official alerts should be reviewed before push notifications. Official alerts can pass through clearly labeled.
Earthquake Boundary
The system can forecast probabilities, aftershocks, anomaly watches, and early warning after detection. It must not fake exact prediction certainty.
Evidence
Every alert should show what changed, which feeds agree, how fresh the data is, and what remains uncertain.
Use Official Instructions During Emergencies
This page is for early awareness and evidence tracking. During active danger, follow local emergency management and official warning agencies first. PlanetWatch AI should help readers notice risk earlier, not replace authorities.
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